Pachter: Wii sales declining, Galaxy 2/Other M aren’t system sellers

“I can’t imagine Super Mario Galaxy 2 or Metroid Other M as system-sellers, any more than I would expect Halo Reach or SOCOM to be. The hardcore Wii audience already has a Wii console, so these game launches aren’t likely to be catalysts. This far into the cycle, the only thing that really gets consoles moving is price cuts, and Nintendo was reluctant to cut price last year. In fact, the company waited until late September to cut price, even though year-over-year U.S. sales from April on were down 47%. Over the first two months of this year, Wii sales in the U.S. are down 39%, but some of that could be due to inexplicable supply shortages (one would think that Nintendo could manage the supply chain better 3 1/2 years after launch), so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt. However, we saw declines in sales of Wii Fit Plus with Balance Board and Wii Play, suggesting that demand for the Wii and its products is on the decline. So as far as I can see, unless Nintendo decides to cut price, there is not much of a catalyst coming. I don’t see the Wii Vitality Sensor driving sales, but I suppose I could be wrong. I often am…” ~Michael Pachter

Part of me definitely agrees with him, but on the other hand, I don’t think Wii/DS sales are on the decline. Judging from the past, Nintendo has a pretty good grip on how the economics of video games work, and I can’t really see why they’d lose sight of that all of the sudden.